What Went Down On Super Tuesday

Biden winning Minnesota would be pretty bad for Sanders, Sarah. Since Biden had only a 1 in 5 (19 percent) chance of winning the state, it would probably qualify as his most surprising win of the night (that or Massachusetts, if he wins there). It would also imply that the endorsements of Biden in recent days have really been working on voters. Until yesterday, Minnesota was expected to vote for Klobuchar, but then she dropped out and endorsed Biden. It would be a pretty remarkable demonstration of Klobuchar’s political muscle if a majority of voters in her state listened to her and switched to Biden.

Biden and Sanders are tied at 34 percent in Maine with 21 percent reporting. It seems like a good Sanders state, and our model had him favored there, but its population is also quite old, which is working against him.

Much of Hennepin County (Minneapolis) has reported in Minnesota, and Biden is leading Sanders there by about 2 points, 35 percent to 33 percent. That’s a bit surprising to me, as the Twin Cities are the most liberal part of the state. Warren has 19 percent, though, so I wonder if she actually might be a bit of a spoiler for Sanders there.