What Went Down On Super Tuesday

Sarah, if Minnesota were to be called for Biden, his projection would shoot up to 1,944 delegates and Sanders’s would decline to 1,188. It would be a pretty big deal, and it would sort of make Texas a must-win state for Sanders to avoid a really bad night.

The Upshot is now saying their projections show that Biden could be a comfortable favorite in Minnesota.

If Biden were to win there, how big of a deal would that be? As a refresher, we gave Sanders a 53 percent shot of winning the most votes there and Klobuchar the second-best shot, at 24 percent.

With 11 percent of the vote reporting in Massachusetts, Biden has 33 percent, Sanders has 27 percent, Warren has 23 percent and Bloomberg has 11 percent. That’s pretty surprising considering our model gave Biden only a 1 in 5 (20 percent) chance to win. But Massachusetts is a state with little early voting, and clearly Biden’s late surge was reflected here. Notably, based on the town-by-town results, Biden appears to be cutting into the white college-educated vote that Warren probably needed to win — and marrying it with support from nonwhite voters (he is currently winning the city of Boston, for instance).