What Went Down On Super Tuesday

Oklahoma is another state where we expected Biden to win; we had him beating Sanders 34 percent to 25 percent on average. Right now, with only 10 percent of precincts reporting, Biden has 31 percent, Sanders has 21 percent, Bloomberg has 18 percent and Warren has 13 percent.

Julia, is there an option on that interactive for if we believe that all of reality is a simulation? We’re narrowing down to ~2,000 simulations in our simulation, which exists within a larger simulation.

With just shy of 2,000 simulations remaining after Biden’s wins in Oklahoma and Tennessee, our model gives Biden a 37 percent chance of winning a majority of pledged delegates, just 6 points higher than where he started tonight.