What Went Down On Super Tuesday

In the current landscape of results, Texas is increasingly crucial for both Biden and Sanders. According to our Super Tuesday simulator, we project that a Biden win in Texas would put him within striking distance of a pledged delegate majority at the time of the convention, while pushing Sanders’ chances of winning a majority down to just 2.5 percent. Meanwhile, a Sanders win in Texas would basically mean neither Biden nor Sanders are likely to win a majority (neither cracks a 15 percent chance), with “no majority” being the big winner in that scenario.

With 49 percent of Election Day precincts reporting in Tennessee, it’s Biden 34 percent, Sanders 24 percent, Bloomberg 19 percent and Warren 9 percent. If those results hold, Biden, Sanders and Bloomberg will qualify for delegates.

Sarah, I do think if Biden wins the nomination that at the very least there will be a lot of stories about whether younger, more liberal Democrats turn out and vote at the levels Democrats need to beat Trump. And there are such big divides in support by age and ideology that it really doesn’t seem like a great thing for Democrats on paper.

But as Dan just pointed out, this works both ways — young people might turn out for Sanders but maybe more moderate voters don’t. Also, even though I think these types of stories are overblown — remember #BernieOrBust and PUMA (“Party Unity My Ass”) — modern elections tend to be so close because of partisanship, and even small effects along these lines can make a difference.