FiveThirtyEight
Tony Chow

They’re talking about the coronavirus on ABC right now and we’ve gotten a few reader questions about its impact on this election as well. Here are Micah and Galen with their perspective on how the virus could affect the primaries:

Nate Silver

It’s really important to remember that Virginia, where Biden is winning by 31 (!!) points so far, has little early voting, whereas states like California and Texas have much more. That could be the difference between Biden having a good night and a great night.

Laura Bronner

Digging deeper into the preliminary Virginia exit polls, it’s notable that Biden has a comfortable lead over the other candidates among college graduates, including white college graduates — not a demographic with which he had shown much strength in the four early states. Of course, in line with his earlier performance, his lead among non-college nonwhite voters is even more formidable.

In Virginia, voters of all education levels back Biden

Candidates’ vote share by race and education, in preliminary exit polls in Virginia

White Nonwhite
candidate college graduates non-college graduates college graduates non-college graduates
Biden 52% 46% 54% 69%
Sanders 19 32 25 20
Warren 15 10 10 2
Bloomberg 12 8 10 7
Gabbard 1 2 1 0
Buttigieg 0 0 0
Klobuchar 0 1 0 0
Steyer 0 0 0

Source: Edison Research


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