What Went Down On Super Tuesday

North Carolina and Virginia are not heavily Latino states like Texas or California, but they have decently sized Latino populations, which is why it’s striking to see that Biden is doing substantially better than Sanders among Latinos in both states, according to preliminary exit polls.

Meanwhile, no state other than Virginia has more than 8 percent of precincts reporting.

With Biden’s win in Alabama, we’re down to only ~3,500 simulations out of the 20,000 we started with in our Super Tuesday simulator. Bloomberg’s win in American Samoa is what really winnowed the pool, but every call will give us fewer simulations to estimate from.