What Went Down On Super Tuesday

With Biden’s win in Alabama, we’re down to only ~3,500 simulations out of the 20,000 we started with in our Super Tuesday simulator. Bloomberg’s win in American Samoa is what really winnowed the pool, but every call will give us fewer simulations to estimate from.

Eighty-five percent of precincts are reporting in Virginia, which makes it my new favorite state. Biden has 54 percent, Sanders has 23 percent, Warren has 10 percent and Bloomberg has 9 percent.

One of my big questions throughout this race was whether the hatred of Biden in the “black left” would hurt him among black voters more generally. The answer in the states that have been reporting so far seems to be “no.”

People keep writing me and saying, “Black voters are not monolithic, “What about black voters outside the South?” and “What about younger black voters?” Those are all good points. But the Democratic primary electorate, including black voters, is mostly voters over age 45. Of the states with the most black residents, seven of the top 10 are in the South. Sanders’s weakness with older black voters in the South is a real problem for him. Older black voters in the South appear to be monolithically against Sanders and for Biden.

I also think measuring black political attitudes outside of this primary contest is really important. Black voters, even older ones in the South, I suspect have fairly diverse views on a ton of questions, just not about whether they’re excited about Sanders as president.