What Went Down On Super Tuesday

One of my big questions throughout this race was whether the hatred of Biden in the “black left” would hurt him among black voters more generally. The answer in the states that have been reporting so far seems to be “no.”

People keep writing me and saying, “Black voters are not monolithic, “What about black voters outside the South?” and “What about younger black voters?” Those are all good points. But the Democratic primary electorate, including black voters, is mostly voters over age 45. Of the states with the most black residents, seven of the top 10 are in the South. Sanders’s weakness with older black voters in the South is a real problem for him. Older black voters in the South appear to be monolithically against Sanders and for Biden.

I also think measuring black political attitudes outside of this primary contest is really important. Black voters, even older ones in the South, I suspect have fairly diverse views on a ton of questions, just not about whether they’re excited about Sanders as president.

This will likely change, but right now Biden is winning Virginia by a larger margin than Sanders is winning by in Vermont.

I’ve been diving into the (partial) results from Virginia, and here’s what I’m seeing. Obviously, Biden is cleaning up in that state. But Sanders is doing relatively better than in 2016 in black communities and densely populated places, but not as well in places with many people over 65 or renters.