What Went Down On Super Tuesday

Alabama went for Biden tonight. Interestingly, the preliminary exit poll data suggests that a narrow majority of the primary electorate there was white (51 percent). This was a slight shift from the past two Democratic presidential primaries, when a slight majority of the electorate was black. Biden won by 60 points among black voters and by 27 points among white voters.

Dave Wasserman’s tweet here is one possible takeaway from these early returns: that field offices matter less than ever to the results of presidential primaries. I’d urge some caution though: The published peer-reviewed research on field office effects is all from general elections, and those articles estimate the effects to be around 1 percent. Biden’s performance in states like Virginia and North Carolina so far looks on par with his success in South Carolina, and if Bloomberg thought having offices in those states could provide a firewall against Biden there, it was a mistake. I find field offices interesting because they provide a snapshot of the communities campaigns want to invest in and give insight into candidates’ strategies, but I’m under no illusions: They’re simply not going to be decisive except in very close elections, and the states so far are not that.

I think that’s absolutely right, Nathaniel — but Biden’s strong showing so far puts even more pressure on Sanders to rack up big margins in states where he’s also strong, like California.