What Went Down On Super Tuesday

It’ll be awhile before we know what’s happening in Tennessee, but our forecast pegs Biden as the favorite in Tennessee with about a 2 in 3 (68 percent) chance of winning statewide, though Sanders also has a real shot at finishing first, with a 1 in 4 (25 percent) chance. Biden has a forecasted statewide vote of 34 percent, on average, ahead of Sanders’s 27 percent. But the results by congressional district will also matter for delegate allocation purposes, and unlike in some of the other Southern states, Biden’s and Sanders’s vote shares are neck-and-neck in some districts, with Sanders even leading in a few. Here is our forecasted vote share for each candidate in each district:

Looking at the ideological breakdown of Virginia’s primary vote, data from the preliminary exit polls found that Biden won by 20 or more points among the two largest segments of the Democratic electorate: somewhat liberal and moderate voters, who made up about 70 percent of all voters. But Sanders did beat Biden among the one-fifth or so of the electorate who called themselves very liberal.

Actually (said in snarky voice), American Samoa is a very efficient win for Bloomberg. It’s worth 6 delegates and only about 350 people voted. To put that into perspective, New Hampshire is worth 24 delegates and nearly 300,000 people voted.