What Went Down On Super Tuesday
Looking at the ideological breakdown of Virginia’s primary vote, data from the preliminary exit polls found that Biden won by 20 or more points among the two largest segments of the Democratic electorate: somewhat liberal and moderate voters, who made up about 70 percent of all voters. But Sanders did beat Biden among the one-fifth or so of the electorate who called themselves very liberal.
Moderate Virginians overwhelmingly voted for Biden
Vote share by candidate in the 2020 Virginia Democratic primary within voter political ideology groups, according to preliminary exit poll data
| Candidate | Very liberal (19%) | Somewhat liberal (34%) | Moderate (38%) | Conservative (9%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | 32% | 45% | 58% | 41% |
| Sanders | 46 | 23 | 16 | 31 |
| Bloomberg | 6 | 8 | 14 | 15 |
| Warren | 15 | 20 | 6 | 5 |
Actually (said in snarky voice), American Samoa is a very efficient win for Bloomberg. It’s worth 6 delegates and only about 350 people voted. To put that into perspective, New Hampshire is worth 24 delegates and nearly 300,000 people voted.
North Carolina was another state where late deciders broke heavily for Biden. According to preliminary exit polls, 59 percent of North Carolinians who chose whom to vote for in the past few days chose Biden, while 21 percent chose Sanders. However, Biden still did plenty well among voters who decided earlier.
Biden surged with late deciders
Candidates’ vote share by when they decided, in preliminary exit polls in Vermont, Virginia and North Carolina
| Vermont | Virginia | North Carolina | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last few days (36%) | Earlier (63%) | Last few days (48%) | Earlier (52%) | Last few days (31%) | Earlier (68%) | |
| Biden | 31% | 9% | 52% | 45% | 59% | 40% |
| Sanders | 37 | 69 | 20 | 30 | 21 | 25 |
| Warren | 16 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| Bloomberg | 13 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 11 |
| Buttigieg | 0 | 2 | — | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| Klobuchar | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | — | 3 |
| Gabbard | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Steyer | 0 | — | 1 | 0 | — | 0 |