FiveThirtyEight
Galen Druke

Actually (said in snarky voice), American Samoa is a very efficient win for Bloomberg. It’s worth 6 delegates and only about 350 people voted. To put that into perspective, New Hampshire is worth 24 delegates and nearly 300,000 people voted.

Nathaniel Rakich

North Carolina was another state where late deciders broke heavily for Biden. According to preliminary exit polls, 59 percent of North Carolinians who chose whom to vote for in the past few days chose Biden, while 21 percent chose Sanders. However, Biden still did plenty well among voters who decided earlier.

Biden surged with late deciders

Candidates’ vote share by when they decided, in preliminary exit polls in Vermont, Virginia and North Carolina

Vermont Virginia North Carolina
Last few days (36%) Earlier (63%) Last few days (48%) Earlier (52%) Last few days (31%) Earlier (68%)
Biden 31% 9% 52% 45% 59% 40%
Sanders 37 69 20 30 21 25
Warren 16 11 13 10 11 11
Bloomberg 13 7 12 7 7 11
Buttigieg 0 2 3 0 5
Klobuchar 1 1 1 2 3
Gabbard 1 0 1 1 0
Steyer 0 1 0 0

Source: Edison Research

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

The time differences in the results tonight are not very helpful to Sanders. Western states are where he’s strongest, but Biden’s first few East Coast wins are dominating television coverage right now. I wonder if that even ends up influencing some voters in places where people are still standing in line at the polls. (Cough cough, Los Angeles County!)


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