What Went Down On Super Tuesday

There’s more of a difference in the gender composition of the electorate in the states for which we have preliminary exit polls than I expected — women make up between 54 percent (Oklahoma) and 60 percent (Maine) of voters. But in the states that have been called so far, it’s interesting that while there’s a gender gap in support in Virginia, with Biden having more support among women than men (51 to 43 percent) and Sanders having more support among men (32 to 20 percent), Vermont and North Carolina don’t have an obvious gender divide for the top two candidates. That said, Warren has a pretty clear gender gap in all three states, with her support among women being in the mid-teens while her support among men is in the high single digits.

I’ve been looking at which North Carolina towns saw the greatest increase in early voter turnout. Affluent suburbs outside of Raleigh and Charlotte saw some of the most dramatic increases. As Geoff mentioned, Biden had an almost 20-point lead in the affluent D.C. suburbs in Virginia, which could indicate a similar phenomenon in these areas.

Also at 8 p.m. Eastern, polls will close in Massachusetts, where Sanders has a 1 in 2 (51 percent) chance to win in our forecast; Warren, who represents the state, has a 1 in 4 (25 percent) chance. Per the average model run, Sanders is expected to get 29 percent of the vote, Warren 25 percent, Biden 24 percent and Bloomberg 19 percent. But 59 pledged delegates will also be decided based on the results on the congressional-district level, so here’s our forecast for each district.