What Went Down On Super Tuesday

For those wondering about the exact results in American Samoa, it was Bloomberg 175, Gabbard 103, Sanders 37, Biden 31 and Warren 5. Those are raw votes, not percentages. I would like to take this opportunity to say that I predicted yesterday in front of God and the whole FiveThirtyEight office that Bloomberg would finish first in American Samoa and Gabbard would finish second.

Luckily we’ll have plenty of other results to keep us busy at 8, with polls closing in Massachusetts, Alabama, Oklahoma, Maine and parts of Texas.

There’s more of a difference in the gender composition of the electorate in the states for which we have preliminary exit polls than I expected — women make up between 54 percent (Oklahoma) and 60 percent (Maine) of voters. But in the states that have been called so far, it’s interesting that while there’s a gender gap in support in Virginia, with Biden having more support among women than men (51 to 43 percent) and Sanders having more support among men (32 to 20 percent), Vermont and North Carolina don’t have an obvious gender divide for the top two candidates. That said, Warren has a pretty clear gender gap in all three states, with her support among women being in the mid-teens while her support among men is in the high single digits.