FiveThirtyEight
Kaleigh Rogers

Luckily we’ll have plenty of other results to keep us busy at 8, with polls closing in Massachusetts, Alabama, Oklahoma, Maine and parts of Texas.

Laura Bronner

There’s more of a difference in the gender composition of the electorate in the states for which we have preliminary exit polls than I expected — women make up between 54 percent (Oklahoma) and 60 percent (Maine) of voters. But in the states that have been called so far, it’s interesting that while there’s a gender gap in support in Virginia, with Biden having more support among women than men (51 to 43 percent) and Sanders having more support among men (32 to 20 percent), Vermont and North Carolina don’t have an obvious gender divide for the top two candidates. That said, Warren has a pretty clear gender gap in all three states, with her support among women being in the mid-teens while her support among men is in the high single digits.

Likhitha Butchireddygari

I’ve been looking at which North Carolina towns saw the greatest increase in early voter turnout. Affluent suburbs outside of Raleigh and Charlotte saw some of the most dramatic increases. As Geoff mentioned, Biden had an almost 20-point lead in the affluent D.C. suburbs in Virginia, which could indicate a similar phenomenon in these areas.

Affluent N.C. cities saw a dramatic increase in early voting

Number of early voters in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary by median income, compared with 2016

City MEDIAN INCOME Increase from 2016
Holly Springs $104,822 226.0%
Davidson 128,255 185.9
Waxhaw 107,356 123.9
Mooresville 67,656 117.3
Knightdale 70,376 108.6
Morrisville 96,489 105.4
Cary 101,079 104.2
Cornelius 88,366 99.0
Wake Forest 88,394 96.8
Leland 66,996 95.2

This analysis was done on cities that had more than 1,000 early voters in 2020.

Source: North Carolina Board of Elections


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