What Went Down On Super Tuesday

Polls are about to close (at 8 p.m. Eastern) in Maine, where Sanders is a 2 in 3 (68 percent) favorite to win; Biden could pull off the upset, though, with a 1 in 4 (23 percent) chance. On average, our forecast expects Sanders to win 33 percent of the vote here, Biden to win 26 percent, Bloomberg to win 20 percent and Warren to win 16 percent. And our forecast thinks all four candidates will surpass the 15 percent delegate threshold the state’s two congressional districts as well, which could mean all four get a share of Maine’s delegates.

More reports online of long wait times in Los Angeles County. Not only did the county adopt new machines (ballot marking devices as well as e-poll books), it also replaced neighborhood polling places with fewer regional voting hubs. Other counties in California did this as well, but were required to mail ballots to all registered voters to make up for the inconvenience of closing local polling places. Los Angeles County, however, got a special exemption from that requirement.

Polls are closing soon in Texas, and it might be awhile before we get a call there, because Texas is best described as a toss-up race: Biden has almost a 3 in 5 (55 percent) chance of winning and Sanders has about a 2 in 5 (43 percent) shot. And we expect both of them to get around 30 percent of the statewide vote, on average. But the results by state Senate district will also matter for delegate allocation purposes, and as you can see, both Biden and Sanders are likely to clear the 15 percent vote threshold and pick up delegates in every district. Here is our forecasted vote share for each candidate in each district: