What Went Down On Super Tuesday
Andrew Yang just said on CNN that political science professors were waiting to see what would happen tonight because we were interested in knowing what happens when you enter the race late and spend a lot of money (Bloomberg). He’s not wrong that we love to observe something that looks like it might sort of loosely resemble an experiment. But I think we’ve got plenty of existing theory that suggests Bloomberg’s strategy was shaky at best.
What The Delegate Race Looks Like At The District Level In Oklahoma
In Oklahoma, our forecast suggests Biden has about a 4 in 5 (78 percent) chance of winning statewide, though we can’t count Sanders out as he has a 1 in 6 (18 percent) shot. Biden has a forecasted statewide vote of 34 percent, on average, while Sanders is at 25 percent. But the results by congressional district will also matter for delegate allocation purposes, and each of the top four candidates could get district-level delegates (although Biden seems to lead on this metric too). Here is our forecasted vote share for each candidate in each seat:
Four candidates could get delegates in Oklahoma
Average forecasted vote share for the top four Democratic presidential candidates in Oklahoma congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 9:30 a.m. on March 3
| District | Biden | Sanders | Bloomberg | Warren |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OK-01 | 34% | 25% | 18% | 17% |
| OK-02 | 35 | 26 | 16 | 17 |
| OK-03 | 34 | 26 | 16 | 17 |
| OK-04 | 34 | 26 | 17 | 17 |
| OK-05 | 35 | 24 | 18 | 16 |
| State | 34 | 25 | 17 | 17 |
We, uhhh, didn’t do a lot of work on the territories, and I’m glad we dodged the bullet of Tulsi Gabbard winning in American Samoa, which our model assigned almost no chance of happening. We may revisit the rest of the territories after tonight, which look like they could be a strength for Bloomberg.