What Went Down On Super Tuesday
Micah, I think age is the obvious answer; Sanders continues to win younger voters by huge margins. But as I said earlier tonight, I think a more subtle but meaningful fault line in the primary is gender. Men are more likely than women to back Sanders so far. I’m interested in whether this gap persists in states like California and Texas, where primary voters are younger and more racially diverse.
What The Delegate Race Looks Like At The District Level In Alabama
We’re about to hit 8 p.m. ET which means polls are closing in six more states and we can expect more results soon. First up, in this batch: Alabama.
Biden is a strong favorite in Alabama — our forecast gives him an 11 in 12 (92 percent) chance of finishing first, with an estimated vote share of 44 percent, on average. But the results by congressional district will also matter for delegate allocation purposes. Here is our forecasted vote share for each candidate in each district (where once again, Biden is favored to get the lion’s share):
Biden is likely to win across all of Alabama
Average forecasted vote share for the top four Democratic presidential candidates in Alabama congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 9:30 a.m. on March 3
| District | Biden | Sanders | Bloomberg | Warren |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-01 | 43% | 21% | 19% | 12% |
| AL-02 | 45 | 20 | 19 | 12 |
| AL-03 | 43 | 22 | 19 | 12 |
| AL-04 | 36 | 25 | 20 | 14 |
| AL-05 | 39 | 23 | 19 | 14 |
| AL-06 | 38 | 24 | 19 | 15 |
| AL-07 | 51 | 17 | 18 | 9 |
| State | 44 | 21 | 19 | 12 |
I’d put age just above ideology, though, Geoff. As Laura wrote, it seems to be a bit more influential in Sanders’s coalition, for example.