What Went Down On Super Tuesday
What The Delegate Race Looks Like At The District Level In Oklahoma
In Oklahoma, our forecast suggests Biden has about a 4 in 5 (78 percent) chance of winning statewide, though we can’t count Sanders out as he has a 1 in 6 (18 percent) shot. Biden has a forecasted statewide vote of 34 percent, on average, while Sanders is at 25 percent. But the results by congressional district will also matter for delegate allocation purposes, and each of the top four candidates could get district-level delegates (although Biden seems to lead on this metric too). Here is our forecasted vote share for each candidate in each seat:
Four candidates could get delegates in Oklahoma
Average forecasted vote share for the top four Democratic presidential candidates in Oklahoma congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 9:30 a.m. on March 3
| District | Biden | Sanders | Bloomberg | Warren |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OK-01 | 34% | 25% | 18% | 17% |
| OK-02 | 35 | 26 | 16 | 17 |
| OK-03 | 34 | 26 | 16 | 17 |
| OK-04 | 34 | 26 | 17 | 17 |
| OK-05 | 35 | 24 | 18 | 16 |
| State | 34 | 25 | 17 | 17 |
We, uhhh, didn’t do a lot of work on the territories, and I’m glad we dodged the bullet of Tulsi Gabbard winning in American Samoa, which our model assigned almost no chance of happening. We may revisit the rest of the territories after tonight, which look like they could be a strength for Bloomberg.
Micah, I think age is the obvious answer; Sanders continues to win younger voters by huge margins. But as I said earlier tonight, I think a more subtle but meaningful fault line in the primary is gender. Men are more likely than women to back Sanders so far. I’m interested in whether this gap persists in states like California and Texas, where primary voters are younger and more racially diverse.