What Went Down On Super Tuesday

We, uhhh, didn’t do a lot of work on the territories, and I’m glad we dodged the bullet of Tulsi Gabbard winning in American Samoa, which our model assigned almost no chance of happening. We may revisit the rest of the territories after tonight, which look like they could be a strength for Bloomberg.

Micah, I think age is the obvious answer; Sanders continues to win younger voters by huge margins. But as I said earlier tonight, I think a more subtle but meaningful fault line in the primary is gender. Men are more likely than women to back Sanders so far. I’m interested in whether this gap persists in states like California and Texas, where primary voters are younger and more racially diverse.

We’re about to hit 8 p.m. ET which means polls are closing in six more states and we can expect more results soon. First up, in this batch: Alabama.

Biden is a strong favorite in Alabama — our forecast gives him an 11 in 12 (92 percent) chance of finishing first, with an estimated vote share of 44 percent, on average. But the results by congressional district will also matter for delegate allocation purposes. Here is our forecasted vote share for each candidate in each district (where once again, Biden is favored to get the lion’s share):