What Went Down On Super Tuesday
Another (expected) win for Biden in North Carolina means we’re not running out of simulations too quickly, so our best guess from our simulator is still roughly in line with where we started
In North Carolina, Bloomberg had the most field offices yet again, but his advantage was not as large: Sanders and Warren had four, while Biden only had one. Bloomberg’s first field office of the entire campaign was in Charlotte, showing his commitment to North Carolina. I’ll need to see more details, but it is becoming clearer: The aftermath of South Carolina overwhelmed Bloomberg’s investments, and Biden didn’t need much organization to sustain his momentum.
Amelia pointed out that the Virginia exit polls show a wide gender gap. As more polls close, I am going to be watching for this in other states as well. The gender gap is the difference in support between men and women for a particular candidate. According to exit polls of the first four primary states, Sanders’s support from men is much higher than his support from women.
Sanders’s support is higher among men
Vote share by gender in entrance and exit polls from completed state primaries and caucuses
| Biden | Sanders | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Male | Female | Diff. | Male | Female | Diff. |
| Iowa | 16% | 16% | 0 | 26% | 20% | +6 |
| New Hampshire | 8 | 8 | 0 | 31 | 23 | +8 |
| Nevada | 18 | 17 | +1 | 38 | 30 | +8 |
| South Carolina | 48 | 49 | -1 | 24 | 17 | +7 |
In states like Nevada, Sanders won among both men and women — but there was still an 8-point gap! We need more information on whether support from women lags because they lack men’s enthusiasm for Sanders or because they are just slightly more enthusiastic for another candidate. But so far in the race, it seems clear that the Sanders campaign is appealing more to men.