What Went Down On Super Tuesday
Scenes From The Campaign Trail In North Carolina
Over the weekend, Biden and his team held an event in Raleigh, North Carolina, at St. Augustine’s, a historically back university where Biden told voters about his time spent as Obama’s vice president and pitched them on his ability to beat Trump.
Perhaps the loudest reaction of the afternoon came when Rep. G. K. Butterfield told the crowd, “We’ve got to nominate a candidate who can win, not only the presidency, but win the state legislature, win the House, and yes, beat [Republican Sen.] Thom Tillis here in North Carolina.”
Butterfield also made digs at Sanders and Bloomberg, saying, “We’re not going to beat Donald Trump by running on Republican values or socialist schemes. We’re going to win this election as Biden Democrats, as Obama Democrats, as Roy Cooper Democrats.” (Cooper, the state’s Democratic governor, won by 0.2 percentage points against the Republican incumbent in 2016.)
Biden also stressed the importance of North Carolina in deciding the presidency, both in the general election and the nomination process.
“Literally, here in North Carolina, you hold in your hands the power to determine the next democratic nominee. That’s not hyperbole, that’s a fact,” Biden said. “If North Carolina stands with us on Tuesday, there’ll be no stopping us from there to the nomination.”
What The Delegate Race Looks Like At The District Level In North Carolina
Even though there might be some delays in North Carolina, some polls should be closing at 7:30, and Biden looks very likely to win North Carolina’s statewide vote — our forecast gives him a 19 in 20 (95 percent) chance of victory, and his estimated vote share is 41 percent, on average. But the results by congressional district will also matter for delegate allocation purposes, and he has a substantial lead in every single district, although Sanders is positioned to clear the 15 percent delegate threshold everywhere, too. Bloomberg and Warren could also pick up delegates. Here is our forecasted vote share for each candidate in each district:
Biden looks like the front-runner across North Carolina
Average forecasted vote share for the top four Democratic presidential candidates in North Carolina congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 9:30 a.m. on March 3
| District | Biden | Sanders | Bloomberg | Warren |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC-01 | 48% | 20% | 17% | 10% |
| NC-02 | 38 | 25 | 17 | 16 |
| NC-03 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 12 |
| NC-04 | 40 | 25 | 16 | 14 |
| NC-05 | 36 | 26 | 19 | 13 |
| NC-06 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 12 |
| NC-07 | 39 | 25 | 18 | 13 |
| NC-08 | 42 | 23 | 18 | 12 |
| NC-09 | 40 | 24 | 17 | 14 |
| NC-10 | 39 | 24 | 19 | 14 |
| NC-11 | 35 | 27 | 18 | 15 |
| NC-12 | 44 | 22 | 17 | 12 |
| NC-13 | 38 | 25 | 19 | 13 |
| State | 41 | 24 | 18 | 13 |
The preliminary exit polls in Virginia are showing a big gender gap for both Biden and Sanders. Women were likelier than men to support Biden (51 percent vs. 43 percent). Men, meanwhile, were more likely than women to support Sanders (32 percent vs. 20 percent). The gender gap for Sanders is particularly striking — he often gets more support from men than from women, but this is a very sizable difference. I’ll be keeping track of where men and women are falling as the night goes on.