What Went Down On Super Tuesday
What The Delegate Race Looks Like At The District Level In North Carolina
Even though there might be some delays in North Carolina, some polls should be closing at 7:30, and Biden looks very likely to win North Carolina’s statewide vote — our forecast gives him a 19 in 20 (95 percent) chance of victory, and his estimated vote share is 41 percent, on average. But the results by congressional district will also matter for delegate allocation purposes, and he has a substantial lead in every single district, although Sanders is positioned to clear the 15 percent delegate threshold everywhere, too. Bloomberg and Warren could also pick up delegates. Here is our forecasted vote share for each candidate in each district:
Biden looks like the front-runner across North Carolina
Average forecasted vote share for the top four Democratic presidential candidates in North Carolina congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 9:30 a.m. on March 3
| District | Biden | Sanders | Bloomberg | Warren |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC-01 | 48% | 20% | 17% | 10% |
| NC-02 | 38 | 25 | 17 | 16 |
| NC-03 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 12 |
| NC-04 | 40 | 25 | 16 | 14 |
| NC-05 | 36 | 26 | 19 | 13 |
| NC-06 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 12 |
| NC-07 | 39 | 25 | 18 | 13 |
| NC-08 | 42 | 23 | 18 | 12 |
| NC-09 | 40 | 24 | 17 | 14 |
| NC-10 | 39 | 24 | 19 | 14 |
| NC-11 | 35 | 27 | 18 | 15 |
| NC-12 | 44 | 22 | 17 | 12 |
| NC-13 | 38 | 25 | 19 | 13 |
| State | 41 | 24 | 18 | 13 |
The preliminary exit polls in Virginia are showing a big gender gap for both Biden and Sanders. Women were likelier than men to support Biden (51 percent vs. 43 percent). Men, meanwhile, were more likely than women to support Sanders (32 percent vs. 20 percent). The gender gap for Sanders is particularly striking — he often gets more support from men than from women, but this is a very sizable difference. I’ll be keeping track of where men and women are falling as the night goes on.
As results come in, I’ll be using our our Super Tuesday simulator to get a better sense of what these wins might mean. No surprises yet, so we’re still roughly where we started, model-wise.
