What Went Down On Super Tuesday

The preliminary exit polls in Virginia are showing a big gender gap for both Biden and Sanders. Women were likelier than men to support Biden (51 percent vs. 43 percent). Men, meanwhile, were more likely than women to support Sanders (32 percent vs. 20 percent). The gender gap for Sanders is particularly striking — he often gets more support from men than from women, but this is a very sizable difference. I’ll be keeping track of where men and women are falling as the night goes on.

As results come in, I’ll be using our our Super Tuesday simulator to get a better sense of what these wins might mean. No surprises yet, so we’re still roughly where we started, model-wise.

Looking at the age distribution in the states for which we have preliminary exit poll data, we can see that Minnesota had the largest share of voters under 30, while Oklahoma and Alabama were on the older side, with the smallest share of under-30s and, in Oklahoma’s case, the largest share of voters over 65.