What Went Down On Super Tuesday
As Geoff wrote, there’s quite a large difference in vote share for Biden and Sanders between those who decided early and those who decided late — particularly in Vermont. Yet more support for the last-minute Biden surge.
Biden surged with late deciders
Candidates’ vote share by when they decided, in preliminary exit polls in Vermont and Virginia
| Vermont | Virginia | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last few days (36%) | Earlier than that (63%) | Last few days (48%) | Earlier than that (52%) | |
| Biden | 31% | 9% | 52% | 45% |
| Sanders | 37 | 69 | 20 | 30 |
| Warren | 16 | 11 | 13 | 10 |
| Bloomberg | 13 | 7 | 12 | 7 |
| Buttigieg | 0 | 2 | — | 3 |
| Klobuchar | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Gabbard | — | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Steyer | 0 | — | 1 | 0 |
The post-South Carolina polls have suggested Biden is really strong 1. in the South and 2. with black voters (those facts are related, of course). So I’m not surprised Biden won easily in Virginia. But it suggests Sanders may be running into the same problems that cost him the nomination in 2016. If the black vote in the rest of the South resembles that of South Carolina, that’s really bad for Sanders.
Just as polls closed and Virginia was called for Biden, Rep. Spanberger, who flipped a Republican House seat near Richmond, has endorsed the former vice president. Not exactly going out on a limb.