FiveThirtyEight
Dan Hopkins

In late January, I asked Democratic voters age 30 and over about why they backed the candidates they did. Biden voters were more likely to cite electability than backers of any other major Democratic candidate.

Perry Bacon Jr.

Vanity Fair is reporting that some of Bloomberg’s own staff wanted him to leave the race before voting today, post-South Carolina. The fact that such reporting has emerged gives me some sense that there is a decent chance that Bloomberg is leaving the race this week — I doubt his aides would let that out if he is running till the convention.

Laura Bronner

What Voters’ Age Told Us In The First Four States

The clearest dividing line in the primary thus far is age. Younger voters tend to prefer Sanders while older voters prefer Biden — a pattern that’s held true across the four early states. But barring huge voter turnout among younger voters, Biden could stand to pick up even more older voters tonight, as both Klobuchar and Buttigieg also did relatively better among older voters, especially in whiter states.

Biden and Sanders’s support has a huge age divide

Candidates’ vote share by age, in entrance polls in Nevada and Iowa and exit polls in South Carolina and New Hampshire

SC NV NH IA
Candidate 17-44 (29%) 45+ (71%) 17-44 (36%) 45+ (64%) 18-44 (35%) 45+ (65%) 17-44 (45%) 45+ (55%)
Biden 30% 56% 8% 23% 5% 10% 4% 25%
Sanders 34 14 56 21 42 18 41 8
Steyer 9 13 4 12 3 4 1 2
Buttigieg 10 7 13 16 22 25 21 24
Warren 12 5 13 13 10 9 16 17
Klobuchar 2 4 4 13 8 27 5 19
Gabbard 2 1 1 0 5 3 0 0
Yang 5 2 10 3

Iowa, Nevada and South Carolina allow 17-year-olds to vote in their primaries or caucuses if they will be 18 by the general election.

Source: Edison Research


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