FiveThirtyEight
Laura Bronner

What Voters’ Age Told Us In The First Four States

The clearest dividing line in the primary thus far is age. Younger voters tend to prefer Sanders while older voters prefer Biden — a pattern that’s held true across the four early states. But barring huge voter turnout among younger voters, Biden could stand to pick up even more older voters tonight, as both Klobuchar and Buttigieg also did relatively better among older voters, especially in whiter states.

Biden and Sanders’s support has a huge age divide

Candidates’ vote share by age, in entrance polls in Nevada and Iowa and exit polls in South Carolina and New Hampshire

SC NV NH IA
Candidate 17-44 (29%) 45+ (71%) 17-44 (36%) 45+ (64%) 18-44 (35%) 45+ (65%) 17-44 (45%) 45+ (55%)
Biden 30% 56% 8% 23% 5% 10% 4% 25%
Sanders 34 14 56 21 42 18 41 8
Steyer 9 13 4 12 3 4 1 2
Buttigieg 10 7 13 16 22 25 21 24
Warren 12 5 13 13 10 9 16 17
Klobuchar 2 4 4 13 8 27 5 19
Gabbard 2 1 1 0 5 3 0 0
Yang 5 2 10 3

Iowa, Nevada and South Carolina allow 17-year-olds to vote in their primaries or caucuses if they will be 18 by the general election.

Source: Edison Research

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Bloomberg’s campaign manager apparently just told reporters in Florida, “I think Mike Bloomberg is either the candidate for the party or the single most important person helping that candidate defeat Donald Trump” — but then added that he’s “absolutely not” dropping out tonight.

Geoffrey Skelley

Based on the preliminary exit polls, Democratic primary voters have more favorable views of socialism than unfavorable ones, though it definitely varies in the states where this question was asked. In Maine and Texas, a pretty sizable majority had positive views of socialism, while things were more evenly split in North Carolina and Tennessee. I checked to see if there was a relationship between views of socialism and the share of the electorate that was liberal, but there wasn’t really a clear one. Although 72 percent of voters in Maine and 59 percent of voters in Texas voters were liberal, the ideological makeup of Texas’s electorate was about the same as voters in North Carolina (58 percent liberal) and Tennessee (56 percent liberal).

Primary voters have somewhat positive views of socialism

Favorable and unfavorable views of socialism based on preliminary exit poll results in four states where that question was asked

View of Socialism
State Favorable Unfavorable
Maine 62% 31%
Texas 57 37
North Carolina 48 42
Tennessee 47 44

Source: ABC News/Edison Research


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