What Went Down In Super Bowl LII

Let’s remember this little nugget: The Patriots have never scored in the first quarter of a Super Bowl.

Walt, was there a prop bet on the number of times Michaels/Collinsworth would say “RPO”?

During the regular season, Alshon Jeffrey averaged fewer than 50 yards per game, his worst season since he was a rookie. But in the playoffs, he’s back up to 73 YPG — and had a big catch on third down there.

I am a Giants fan. The possibility of an Eagles franchise with a Super Bowl win is an obscenity for me. For the first time and for the last time, Go Pats.

I get that they have to do what they think is best for their team, but why would the Eagles elect to give Belichick the two-for-one opportunity after halftime he always looks for?

As a Jets fan, I also don’t like either team/city/fanbase. But I’ve already come to terms with New England superiority, so another Super Bowl means little. Selfishly, I don’t want us to be the only green-clad sadsacks left on the Acela corridor. So, yeah, Pats??

I’m a Lions fan with no skin in the game — but since Pats fans already hate me forever, I might as well root Eagles.

I grew up in Pennsylvania, surrounded by Eagles fans. I’ve also visited Boston, and have eyes and ears. I’m rooting for the asteroid.

(Sends message in Slack with Eagles logo set as “status”) No comment.

Fly Eagles Fly!

Colleen, one of our sage copy editors (and a Patriots fan), expressed some worry that this live blog is stocked with Eagles partisans. So, before the game starts, let’s have some transparency: Do you care who wins this game? And if so, who are you rooting for?

You kinda always associate the Patriots with one-sided bloodbaths where the opponent is left demoralized and humiliated. When New England is playing well and everyone is healthy, it can be hard to imagine any outcome other than this when trying to predict what will happen. According ESPN Stats and Information, New England was won 74 games by 21 or more points since 2001, with six of those coming in the playoffs. But when it comes to this particular game, the Patriots have yet to blow anyone out. Every one of their seven Super Bowls has been decided by 1-6 points. The only one that was a relatively comfortable victory was Super Bowl XXXIX when they beat Donovan McNabb and the Eagles. McNabb threw a TD to Greg Lewis with just under two minutes left to cut the Pats’ lead to 3 points but that game never felt very much in doubt. This helps explain why the spread is only 4 points and came down from as high as 6.5 points, where it opened in some books.

It’s not enough that the New England Patriots are the best team in the NFL (and have been for a long, long time), led by the top coach/quarterback combo the game has ever seen. They’ve also enjoyed a ridiculously cushy path to the Super Bowl this season — the easiest for any conference champ since 1990, in fact, according to our Elo ratings.

The Patriots’ Super Bowl cakewalk

Super Bowl teams with the easiest playoff paths, based on how their opponents would have fared against a generic conference finalist, 1990-2017

			Generic Team’s Chances
			Game No. 1		Game No. 2
	Team	Season	Opponent	Win %	Opponent	Win %	Super Bowl %	Won SB?
1	Patriots	2017	Titans	77.2%	Jaguars	71.0%	54.8%	?
2	Eagles	2004	Vikings	75.6	Falcons	72.2	54.6
3	Bears	2006	Seahawks	74.6	Saints	72.7	54.2
4	Patriots	1996	Steelers	68.7	Jaguars	77.8	53.4
5	Steelers	1995	Bills	74.2	Colts	69.9	51.9
6	Patriots	2011	Broncos	81.4	Ravens	57.0	46.4
7	Bills	1993	Raiders	73.8	Chiefs	61.1	45.1
8	Giants	2000	Eagles	67.2	Vikings	66.0	44.3
9	Patriots	2016	Texans	76.2	Steelers	56.9	43.4	✓
10	Saints	2009	Cardinals	69.4	Vikings	60.9	42.3	✓
11	Seahawks	2014	Panthers	70.5	Packers	57.5	40.5
12	Redskins	1991	Falcons	67.7	Lions	59.6	40.4	✓
13	Bills	1990	Dolphins	64.4	Raiders	61.6	39.7
14	Bills	1991	Chiefs	62.4	Broncos	63.3	39.5
15	Cowboys	1995	Eagles	70.6	Packers	54.6	38.5	✓

Between facing the Tennessee Titans (No. 17 in Elo) and Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 13), the Pats haven’t had to beat an especially elite team en route to the big game. And although the Eagles rank second in Elo, they’re also still down an MVP-caliber starting QB in Carson Wentz. This doesn’t mean the 2017 Pats wouldn’t be deserving champs — if they beat Philly, they’ll have won 14 of their last 15 games, one of the best stretches of success in NFL history. But it will mean a franchise that doesn’t need the help got a little extra assistance from a weak conference, opposing injuries and some timely upsets.

Throughout the year, but especially during this playoff run, the Patriots have employed a rope-a-dope strategy that allows their defense to take away what opposing offenses are doing well. The Eagles will probably have to do a better job than the Jaguars did of capitalizing on first-half opportunities if they want to finish the second half with more points (which correlates very strongly with winning).

By my count, it was a minute and 53 second anthem. The over-under was set at two minutes.

Belichick and the Patriots are flush with ridiculous numbers compiled over the past two decades. You could explain their greatness many different ways, but I found this one to be particularly remarkable: During this run under Brady and Belichick, they are 15-0 when they are facing an opponent for the first time that season. In other words, if a team hasn’t seen New England yet in a given season and draws them in the playoffs, it literally always loses. This was true of the Titans before their Divisional game. This was true of the Jaguars heading into the AFC Championship and unfortunately, it’s also true of the Eagles. The Patriots happened to play the NFC Giants in the regular season both times they faced them in the Super Bowl. And their other seven losses were either rematches like those dropped to the Colts, Ravens and Broncos or a third meeting like the one they lost to the Jets in the 2010 season. (And yes, this whole post was just an elaborate way to remind people that the 2010 Jets beat the Patriots in the playoffs after getting humiliated by them 45-3 on national television the month prior.)

Should have been Prince.

That smiling kid to the right and behind the main singer looks as excited as I would if I were performing in the Super Bowl. Cheer up, other kids!

The Eagles’ promising season seemed doomed when starting quarterback Carson Wentz tore his ACL in Week 14. It seemed even more doomed when backup Nick Foles failed to impress against the Raiders and Cowboys to close the regular season. But Foles has silenced the doubters in the playoffs, thanks in part to the game-planning of Philadelphia coach Doug Pederson.

Philly’s passing offense changed in the playoffs

Distance traveled through the air — and after the catch — for passes by Philadelphia Eagles quarterbacks, 2017 season

	Yards/Completion …			% of Passes by Air distance
Quarterback	Through Air	After Catch	Total	<=0 Yds	1-10 Yds	10+ Yds
Carson Wentz	7.7	4.8	12.4	15.5%	44.3%	40.2%
Nick Foles*	5.5	6.7	12.2	28.6	46.0	25.4

Instead of trying to force Foles into the type of downfield attack the strong-armed Wentz had thrived in, Pederson and offensive coordinator Frank Reich installed a shorter passing scheme in which Eagles receivers do most of their damage running after the catch. Then, in the NFC Championship, Foles showed the poise to make secondaries pay deep if they do overcommit to stopping the Eagles’ power running and quick passing game. Getting to the big game after that kind of stylistic switch is impressive. Now we’ll see what kind of counter-adjustments Bill Belichick and the Patriots make against the Eagles’ newfound Foles-led offense.

En route to the Super Bowl, the Eagles dominated the Minnesota Vikings, while the Patriots struggled to get past the Jacksonville Jaguars. Clearly, that’s a big advantage for Philadelphia…. right? Not really, if history is any indicator. Since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger, there’s essentially no relationship between how a team played in the conference championships and whether it ended up winning the Super Bowl. In fact, eventual Super Bowl losers won their conference title games by a wider margin than Super Bowl winners, on average. So although there are plenty of reasons to think Philly can win tonight, their supposed edge in “momentum” isn’t one of them.

Eagles fans have a bad reputation, but maybe there’s also a reason for all the disorderly conduct. Ever since the Philadelphia 76ers won the 1983 NBA title, no city has fallen short of its expected championship tally — based on the number of major-sport teams it fielded — more than the City of Brotherly Love.

Which sports cities have overachieved the most (and least)?

Actual vs. expected championships in the big 4 North American sports for cities, 1984-2017

	Championships vs. Expected
Top 10	NFL	NBA	MLB	NHL	Total
Boston	+4.38	+1.78	+1.84	-0.27	+7.73
Chicago	-0.12	+4.78	-0.31	+1.73	+6.08
Los Angeles	-0.88	+5.60	-0.59	+0.73	+4.86
San Francisco	+2.88	+0.00	+1.84	+0.00	+4.72
San Antonio	+0.00	+3.78	+0.00	+0.00	+3.78
Edmonton	+0.00	+0.00	+0.00	+3.73	+3.73
Pittsburgh	+0.88	+0.00	-1.16	+3.73	+3.45
Detroit	-1.12	+1.78	-0.16	+2.73	+3.23
New York City	+1.75	-2.45	+3.69	+0.20	+3.20
Miami	-1.12	+1.99	+1.19	-0.80	+1.26
	Championships vs. Expected
Bottom 10	NFL	NBA	MLB	NHL	Total
Washington, D.C.	+0.88	-1.22	-0.43	-1.27	-2.05
Seattle	-0.12	-0.92	-1.16	+0.00	-2.20
Minneapolis	-1.12	-0.97	+0.84	-1.00	-2.25
San Diego	-1.09	-0.04	-1.16	+0.00	-2.29
Milwaukee	+0.00	-1.22	-1.16	+0.00	-2.38
Buffalo	-1.12	+0.00	+0.00	-1.27	-2.39
Cleveland	-1.02	-0.22	-1.16	+0.00	-2.40
Phoenix	-0.98	-1.22	+0.33	-0.68	-2.55
Atlanta	-1.12	-1.22	-0.16	-0.37	-2.87
Philadelphia	-0.62	-1.22	-0.16	-1.27	-3.27

That doesn’t excuse things like punching horses, but it does help explain why Philly fans have such visceral reactions to sporting events, win or lose.

As Neil hinted at, the Patriots rank 31st in the NFL in defense (albeit first in offense), based on Football Outsiders’ pet metric, DVOA. That means by this ranking alone, they have the single worst defense of any team to reach the Super Bowl since 1986. The previous worst were the 2011 Patriots who lost to the Giants (for the second time) and last year’s Falcons, who ranked 26th in the NFL in defensive DVOA — and like the Patriots, they also had the league’s best offense.

Of course, New England’s regular-season defensive ranking is very much skewed by the beginning of the season when they couldn’t get off the field and were gouged by every team they faced. This unit gave up 400+ yards in each of their first six games but have only done so once since.

Who’s gonna win tonight? Nobody can say for sure until the teams take the field, but here are four under-the-radar metrics that might help give us clues. For instance, the Patriots have been playing better late in the season than the Eagles, which is usually a good predictor of who comes out on top. However, few Super Bowl teams have ever been as imbalanced between offense and defense as New England in 2017 — a bad omen for Bill Belichick and company.

https://abcnews.go.com/video/55980250

Super Bowl LII is finally here! This year’s NFL championship will pit the league’s greatest-ever dynasty (the New England Patriots) against one of the oldest franchises to never win a Super Bowl (the Philadelphia Eagles). While we all grab food and settle on our couches in front of the action, FiveThirtyEight has assembled its writers and editors (and a few friends) here to chat about the game, second-guess the coaches and dig up all the stats we can furiously query. Let’s get this thing kicked off already!