FiveThirtyEight
Walt Hickey

Should have been Britney.
Ty Schalter

Should have been Janet.
Kyle Wagner

Should have been Prince.
Walt Hickey

Sure seems like something’s wrong with the halftime sound. I don’t really consider this a problem.
Andrea Jones-Rooy

The Lindsey Vonn/Winter Olympics commercial seems like as good a time as any to be a wet blanket and remind everyone that NFL cheerleaders are paid very, very little. (As little as $150 per game, though I don’t know if they get a Super Bowl bonus.
Kyle Wagner

Suggestion for alternative halftime entertainment: Do this or similar to the Eagles fans in your life:
Geoff Foster

Interesting that for all the pressure the Eagles have gotten on Brady, they didn’t actually bring him down for a sack in that half. He’s getting the ball off and not throwing interceptions. But the most worrisome development for the Pats in that half is the combination of injury to Cooks and the complete absence of Gronk. I don’t know who can step up in this pass game.
Neil Paine

But the Eagles are 6-of-9 on third- and fourth-down conversions, including that Foles TD catch. Pats are only 2-of-7.
Ty Schalter

Patriots have more first downs than the Eagles (13-12), yards (350-323) and fewer turnovers (0-1).
Geoff Foster

Here it is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_obxWdohlCk
Kyle Wagner

I’d say the Sean Payton call was much, much riskier, Perry. Even if they missed on this call, the Eagles had Brady up against his own end zone with 30 seconds to play. He’s Brady, but you have to treat him like any other QB — and they’ve been getting to him today. The Saints were beginning the half trailing 10-6 and only stood to gain possession — kicking into a deficit is a different proposition than going for a touchdown while up.
Neil Paine

Even though the Pats have the reputation as an amazing comeback team, this is only the fifth time in the Brady Era they’ve trailed by double-digits at halftime in a playoff game. The only win was, of course, last year’s Super Bowl.
Geoff Foster

Although I remember Tyreek Hill scoring earlier this year for the Chiefs on that play they just ran, Kyle. Of course, Amendola is not Tyreek Hill.
Ty Schalter

They countered play action with run blitz before, but Philly’s been running a lot of outside zones and stretches (maybe setting up the throwback?). I’m thinking they use more nickel/dime and send corner/safety blitzes to bring heat from unexpected directions.
Walt Hickey

There’s only thirty minutes of football between this moment and Sept. 6, so may as well try to enjoy it.
Perry Bacon Jr.

If the Eagles win, that fourth down call from Pederson (the trick play) has to be considered one of the riskiest but best (based on the results) coaching decisions I can remember in a Super Bowl.
Kyle Wagner

We need a way to filter end-of-half/game screen yards, the way NBA stats can filter out end-of-quarter full-court heaves. Those aren’t your yards, Danny!
Geoff Foster

I wonder how many times the Patriots (or any team) didn’t punt in a half and lost it by 10 points.
Andrea Jones-Rooy

Justin Timberlake is about to break a record as the first performer to make three appearances in the Super Bowl (2001 with N’Sync, 2004 with Janet Jackson, and now 2018). This is also his second appearance with the Patriots playing.
Kyle Wagner

Even before that pressure on first down, the Eagles pass rush was coming close enough to Brady to rush throws. Will be important to see how much gas the Philly defense has in the second half against the new gameplan from New England.
Tony Chow

Ok Ty, Patriots got their 30 minutes. What adjustments do you think their defense could make in the 2nd half?
Geoff Foster

Watching Brady run never ceases to be funny.
Geoff Foster

The real interesting question is why they didn’t use that trick play for the botched two-point conversion earlier. They wanted a touchdown on it. It was too good.
Walt Hickey

Nick Foles is better than Tom Brady, provided you limit the scope to an extremely specific situation.
Geoff Foster

They knew that would work, had two weeks to practice. Trick plays in Super Bowl are a lock.
Colleen Barry

OK, even I (a Patriots fan) can admit that was a masterful troll job.
Kyle Wagner

That’s just disrespectful.
Neil Paine

So Foles shows he has better hands than Brady, I guess.
Geoff Foster

More than 620 combined yards in this half. That has to be close to a record. There’s only been one punt!
Neil Paine

That catch and run by Clement was the 5th-longest non-scoring play from scrimmage in Super Bowl history.
Walt Hickey

Tired: Funny commercial. Wired: Meta commentary on the nature of advertising and subversion of the expectations of the medium with winking acknowledgement of the audience.
Geoff Foster

Gostkowski just took out some of his missed PAT aggression on the kick return coverage.
Geoff Foster

Oh man, some really miserable tackling on the end of Lewis TD run. Followed by a missed PAT. This is ugly business.
Geoff Foster

According to this chart, the combination of 5 and 6 has a 0.15 percent chance of hitting in a box pool.
Neil Paine

Unless Gronk gets it going soon, this will be one of his worst first halves of the season. With 9 yards, the only game in which he had fewer in a first half this year was against the Jets in Week 17 (when he went out for 23 first-half routes and didn’t have a catch).
Kyle Wagner

Yeah. And even if a receiver can use his body to ward off his defender and catch an underthrown ball, that hangtime puts it in danger for help defenders.
Geoff Foster

I’m not blaming Foles, but that pass was underthrown. So was the long pass that he completed to Jeffrey on the last drive. I guess I’m blaming Foles, actually.
Neil Paine

And just as I say that, a deflected pick …
Neil Paine

Nick Foles now has a 113.1 passer rating in the Super Bowl. So much for turning into a pumpkin.
Geoff Foster

This has easily been sloppiest, turnover-free game I’ve ever seen.

Geoff, we did ask a stat nerd.
Walt Hickey

Yeah, someone just lost a staggering amount of money, and someone else just got fired.
Geoff Foster

Someone in the truck tripped over a wire.
Geoff Foster

If you ask a bunch of stat nerds whether a team should go for two, the answer will usually be yes.
Ty Schalter

Agree with the Eagles’ decision to go for 2 there. Going up 14 instead of 12 forces the Patriots to convert two PATs, which apparently is a tall order in this game.
Geoff Foster

It boggles the mind that teams in these key situations decide to throw the corner fade/jump ball to the receiver in one-on-one coverage. Just feels like such a low percentage option when you only need a couple yards.
Neil Paine

That run by Blount gained 21 yards. The Eagles led the league this season with 19 runs of at least 20 yards; the Pats’ defense also gave up the 13th-most runs of 20+ yards.
Kyle Wagner

Another massive lane opened up by the Eagles run game. The Philly line has moved the point of attack on New England all night and are getting yards simply by outnumbering Patriot defenders.
Neil Paine

That was a nice catch. The one before, though, was a rare inaccurate pass for Foles in these playoffs. Going into this game, he’d been off-target on only 8.2 percent of his passes, a ridiculously low rate.
Geoff Foster

The Patriots are making an uncharismatic amount of mistakes in this game. They’ve made at least….two mistakes.

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