FiveThirtyEight
Geoff Foster

Geoff Foster

So is Stephon Gilmore shadowing Brandin Cooks? We haven’t heard either player’s name called today if memory serves.

Neil Paine

These Days, The Super Bowl Is Usually Super Exciting

Remember when it was a crapshoot whether the Super Bowl would be a nail-biter or a blowout? Younger fans probably don’t. Ever since 2003, when the Buccaneers crushed the Raiders 48-21, we’ve been treated to an exciting Super Bowl practically every single year. We can see this graphically if we plot out the Excitement Index — calculated as the sum total movement in win probability over the course of a game — for each Super Bowl in history:

Around 15 years ago, Super Bowls below the long-term average for Excitement Index basically stopped existing. Even Super Bowl LI, which did grade slightly below that average, gave us the greatest comeback in championship history. (The only true blowout in the bunch was Super Bowl XLVIII, which saw the Seattle Seahawks crush the Denver Broncos 43-8.)

So it’s fair to say we’ve been pretty spoiled in recent years. Will Super Bowl LIII keep that trend going?


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