What Went Down In Super Bowl LIII
I think it’s super sharp how Edelman dove down to avoid the hit at the end of that play. Stay healthy.
The Best Defense Really Is A Good Offense
In an NFL season defined by explosive offense, it’s no coincidence that the two teams left standing at the top of the heap were both among the league’s top four scoring teams. (The Rams ranked second, and the Pats were fourth.) As our Josh Hermsmeyer reports, one reason why offense wins championships these days is that it’s much easier to reliably build a great team on that side of the ball. For teams, the year-to-year correlation in offensive performance — particularly passing offense — is much higher than the same number on defense.
Defensive performance is unpredictable
Share of performance across various team-level metrics predicted by the previous season’s performance in the regular season, 2009-2018
| metric | Share predicted |
|---|---|
| Total offensive DVOA | 18.9% |
| Offensive passing DVOA | 18.8 |
| Defensive passing DVOA | 10.0 |
| Offensive rushing DVOA | 9.7 |
| Total defensive DVOA | 9.7 |
| Defensive rushing DVOA | 8.3 |
| Sacks | 3.6 |
| Interceptions | 2.4 |
| Fumbles | 1.6 |
While the ability to pressure opposing QBs is relatively predictable, other high-impact defensive plays (interceptions, forced fumbles and even sacks) are almost completely random between seasons. By building around offense instead, teams like the Rams and Patriots have tapped into a more dependable formula for building a contender.
I’m very surprised they didn’t go for it. Patriots were coming off an un-Brady like INT and an un-Gostkowski-like missed FG. Need to take advantage of these chances.
