FiveThirtyEight
Neil Paine

The Best Defense Really Is A Good Offense

In an NFL season defined by explosive offense, it’s no coincidence that the two teams left standing at the top of the heap were both among the league’s top four scoring teams. (The Rams ranked second, and the Pats were fourth.) As our Josh Hermsmeyer reports, one reason why offense wins championships these days is that it’s much easier to reliably build a great team on that side of the ball. For teams, the year-to-year correlation in offensive performance — particularly passing offense — is much higher than the same number on defense.

Defensive performance is unpredictable

Share of performance across various team-level metrics predicted by the previous season’s performance in the regular season, 2009-2018

metric Share predicted
Total offensive DVOA 18.9%
Offensive passing DVOA 18.8
Defensive passing DVOA 10.0
Offensive rushing DVOA 9.7
Total defensive DVOA 9.7
Defensive rushing DVOA 8.3
Sacks 3.6
Interceptions 2.4
Fumbles 1.6

Source: Football Outsiders

While the ability to pressure opposing QBs is relatively predictable, other high-impact defensive plays (interceptions, forced fumbles and even sacks) are almost completely random between seasons. By building around offense instead, teams like the Rams and Patriots have tapped into a more dependable formula for building a contender.

Geoff Foster

I’m very surprised they didn’t go for it. Patriots were coming off an un-Brady like INT and an un-Gostkowski-like missed FG. Need to take advantage of these chances.

Michael Salfino

I so agree with that, Josh, and coaches seem to do it on purpose so it can’t be researched later as a cowardly call.


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