FiveThirtyEight
Josh Hermsmeyer

Finally, a KC receiver caught a ball, quickly turned and ran stright upfield.

Neil Paine

The Chiefs have trailed by 10+ through 3 quarters twice in the Mahomes era: Against the Rams in that incredible 54-51 regular season game (a loss) last year, and in the playoff loss to the Pats last season.

Michael Salfino

Josh McCown told me last year that the middle of the field is wide open in today’s game but teams are too timid to exploit the new rules because they are too afraid of throwing picks.

Josh Hermsmeyer

My update on Garoppolo’s domination over the middle through three quarters:

Michael Salfino

I bet Shanahan does not feel like this lead is safe. 🙂

Sara Ziegler

End of the third quarter! That quarter FLEW by.

Michael Salfino

Parcells used to the Chiefs’ dancing backwards and sideways, “Harry High School (stuff).”

Josh Hermsmeyer

Kelce gave up the first down dancing!

Sara Ziegler

It feels like it’s always third down for the Chiefs. With the conversion on the previous series, they’re 3 of 9 for the game.

Neil Paine

Meanwhile you’ve Kelce inexplicably stopping short of the sticks for some reason.

Michael Salfino

I think Mahomes was thinking about the interception there.

Neil Paine

Uncharacteristically inaccurate throw from Mahomes on first down there.

Josh Hermsmeyer

I believe the spot goes where the ball crosses the sideline, so yeah a little generous.

Neil Paine

That being said, Mahomes is still mobile enough to make first-down runs like that even when the pocket breaks down.

Sara Ziegler

That seemed like a generous spot, no?

Ty Schalter

49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh is not going to stop proving his point about being passed over in this hiring cycle.

Michael Salfino

49ers making the Chiefs play lefthanded.

Neil Paine

The pressure has gotten to Mahomes without needing to send extra rushers. That’s a bad formula for KC.

Josh Hermsmeyer

I’m in California currently and the excitement here is palpable.

Michael Salfino

And it really feels like 85% too.

Neil Paine

85% chance for the Niners to win now, according to ESPN’s model.

Michael Salfino

Yards per pass is such a big stat. Super Bowl teams that win that stat are 42-11.

Sara Ziegler

With 2:35 left in the third quarter, the Niners lead 20-10.

Sara Ziegler

Undrafted free-agent running backs are the best running backs.

Neil Paine

That’s 5 TDs in the playoffs for Mostert.

Sara Ziegler

Touchdown, Mostert!

Neil Paine

Another near-TD there for Kyle Juszczyk.

Sara Ziegler

“It looks like there might have been a grab.” Yeah, that was a missed call there.

Neil Paine

As you wrote about, Mike, the Niners’ strength is their all-around balance. And balance is winning the day right now. San Fran is averaging 8.6 yards per pass and 6.8 yards per run right now.

Josh Hermsmeyer

Yeah Mahomes either misfired or didn’t see the field correctly. Either way, massive mistake.

Neil Paine

That was only the 6th INT Mahomes has thrown all season. Rare miscue for him, especially on the heels of an uncharacteristic fumble that could have also been disastrous for KC.

Michael Salfino

The Niners have totally taken Tyreek Hill out of this game.

Michael Salfino

Even on third down, just a terrible decision by Mahomes there. He seemed to press to make a big play.

Josh Hermsmeyer

Not sure what Mahomes saw there. Interceptions to linebackers are not great!

Neil Paine

This game is really starting to unfold according to San Francisco’s best-case game plan.

Sara Ziegler

Bosa is like, “JUSTICE!”

Neil Paine

Mahomes is picked off!

Sara Ziegler

Ooof, close call there for Mahomes. Bosa almost had that fumble.

Michael Salfino

Ironically, the 49ers are making Mahomes and the Chiefs metriculate the ball down the field.

Josh Hermsmeyer

Sammy Watkins appears to be the forgotten man in coverage. Having a big night with 4 receptions for 60 yards.

Michael Salfino

Just can’t let Mahomes get outside the pocket. I don’t know how you stop it but figure it out.

Michael Salfino

Reportedly, Ty, Kittle was wide open to beat the blitz. But Jimmy G. sort of panicked, apparently, and rushed it even though the protection was good.

Sara Ziegler

I always wonder when there’s a high-profile “miss” on fourth down, like with the Ravens failing to convert twice in their divisional-round game, if that affects other coaches in subsequent situations.

Neil Paine

I was wondering if we’d make it through this Super Bowl without an “Old Town Road” sighting. Nope.

Josh Hermsmeyer

Is Shanahan coaching scared? First he doesn’t call a timeout at the end of the half and now this lack of 4th down aggressiveness.

Ty Schalter

Referring to my pre-game note, Spagnuolo flashed a house-blitz look on third down, exactly the kind of thing I thought Shanahan would have something special for. Huge win for the Chiefs to get the stop — and, yes, Mike, get the gift of a field-goal attempt.

Michael Salfino

The Chiefs desperately, with their entire beings, wanted the 49ers to kick the FG there.

Sara Ziegler

The Niners make the kick on fourth-and-2 and take a 13-10 lead.

Michael Salfino

Throwing short of the sticks on third and five, completing it, and then kicking a FG is just all terrible.

Josh Hermsmeyer

That the Niners settled for a field goal is a huge boon for the Chiefs.


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