FiveThirtyEight
Sara Ziegler

The Kansas City Chiefs won their first championship in January 1970. They got their second a mere 50 years later.

Deep into the fourth quarter of Sunday’s Super Bowl, it looked like the Chiefs would have to wait at least another year for their second ring. The San Francisco 49ers were up 20-10 with a 95 percent chance of winning the game, according to ESPN’s win probability model. But superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes led two fourth-quarter scoring drives to take the lead, and running back Damien Williams capped it off with a game-sealing 38-yard touchdown run.

The win wrapped up a magical run for the Chiefs, who started the season a pedestrian 6-4 but then won their last nine games, including each one in the playoffs. They were the best team in FiveThirtyEight’s Elo model going into the game, and their comeback showed why.

Thanks for joining us tonight for our Super Bowl live blog. See you next season!

Neil Paine

And because we can never let the dust settle on one season before the next starts, the Chiefs are favored to win it all next season, at 6-to-1 odds.

Neil Paine

It’s undeniable.

Michael Salfino

My final observation:

Michael Salfino

I’d love to find out from Shanahan why he stopped calling the Samuel runs that the Chiefs could not stop all game.

Sara Ziegler

Mahomes is in fact the MVP, because the quarterback is always the MVP.

Michael Salfino

Gatorade was ORANGE.

https://twitter.com/darrenrovell/status/1224167781790289920?s=20
Ty Schalter

Mahomes said they “never lost faith” when down two scores in the fourth quarter, and why would they after the playoff run they had? Mahomes made the one huge play he needed (the bomb to Watkins), exactly when he needed to make it. And Reid had enough tricks up his sleeve — including the first-half fourth-down go-for-it call that ended up netting them four critical points.

Michael Salfino

I think this win puts Andy Reid into the Hall of Fame and I have no problem with that. I feel badly for Shanahan. You can always say, “He’ll be back,” but he already was back after almost tasting the ultimate victory only to have it turn sour. Now it happened all over again. There are no guarantees at all. I don’t have a lot of faith that Jimmy Garoppolo is going to get to another Super Bowl.

Neil Paine

The Chiefs came into the season as the second-most likely Super Bowl winner behind the defending champion Pats, so this isn’t exactly a surprise. Mahomes was going to get this moment eventually. But I am surprised how quickly they turned it around tonight. Another testament to the incredible velocity at which this team can mount a comeback.

Josh Hermsmeyer

Oh no

https://twitter.com/ChrisVannini/status/1224169148105854977
Sara Ziegler

I’m very happy for Kansas City and all my Chiefs fan friends. Though I’m a little worried about the Power and Light District tonight…

Neil Paine

What a whirlwind. In fewer than 60 minutes of real-time clock, the Chiefs went from looking totally dead to being Super Bowl champs.

Ty Schalter

“Defense got some big stops for us,” said Pat Mahomes in the post-game interview, but I only remember about one and a half.

Sara Ziegler

Gotta cover all your bases, LOL.

Michael Salfino

But then on Twitter I talked myself in the 49ers because of the subsequent article.

Neil Paine

Mike’s 34-17 Chiefs prediction wasn’t too far off.

Michael Salfino

What color was the Gatorade? Mortgage is riding on this.

Ty Schalter

Give it to Deebo Samuel anyway.

Michael Salfino

I’d vote Williams for MVP.

Neil Paine

A running back hasn’t won MVP since 1998, when Terrell Davis did it.

Josh Hermsmeyer

Yeah I think it has to be Mahomes, but you never know!

Michael Salfino

Those Shanahan timeouts just put all the over-33 rushing yards Mahomes betters in Bad Beat Land.

Neil Paine

Gotta still be Mahomes, right Josh? Either that or Williams. But the pro-QB bias is real I think.

Sara Ziegler

Mahomes has to get the MVP. They wouldn’t give it to Williams, would they?

Ty Schalter

Reid had a Hall of Fame coaching career before this win. Now, I refuse to hear any arguments to the contrary, ever.

Josh Hermsmeyer

Who gets the MVP?

Neil Paine

Chiefs also snapping a 50-year Super Bowl drought. Among teams who have won a SB, that was the second-longest drought. (Sorry about the Jets, Mike.)

Michael Salfino

Lots of controversy on the Gatorade color with purple making a huge late run in the odds after being plus-1200 (Kobe).

Sara Ziegler

Kendall Fuller gets the interception for the Chiefs to seal the deal.

Josh Hermsmeyer

Very happy for Andy Reid and Kansas City.

Neil Paine

Andy Reid has the most career wins without a Super Bowl of any coach who didn’t coach in the pre-SB era. Not for long.

Sara Ziegler

I’m super happy for Andy Reid right now.

Neil Paine

What an abrupt turnaround. Wow.

Sara Ziegler

What a time for a run to break free like that.

Ty Schalter

Well, I was going to say that if the Chiefs didn’t get a first down on the ground, they should throw all our aggressive-play-calling advocacy right out the window and try to coffin-corner punt it. But Damien Williams took it to the house, and out of the probabilities’ hands.

Neil Paine

And here I was just a few minutes ago querying the Super Bowl winner with the worst record the season before. (SF would have tied the 1999 Rams, who also went 4-12 the previous season.)

Neil Paine

If not even higher!

Michael Salfino

Shanahan has to be crushed. 92 percent chance to win in the fourth quarter today. What was it in the Patriots game? 98 percent?

Josh Hermsmeyer

Amazing. The Chiefs are Super Bowl Champions (unless something extremely crazy happens)!

Neil Paine

The Texans are like, yep, we know this feeling.

Neil Paine

There goes Damien Williams! TD Chiefs. 30-20!

Sara Ziegler

And there’s an exclamation mark! Damien Williams with the touchdown.

Michael Salfino

There really isn’t much of a chance for San Francisco.

Ty Schalter

I agree, Sara. It felt like the play clock was at zero for at least 2.5 seconds.

Neil Paine

Well, you know, we’ve seen a No. 10 wriggle out of that kind of pressure and make a huge play before.

Josh Hermsmeyer

Now KC will need to get a first down to use up SF’s three timeouts.

Sara Ziegler

Well, that was a mess of a play. Should have been a delay of game before the sack ever happened.

Neil Paine

KC’s pressure pass rush showed up BIG for one of the first times all game.

Michael Salfino

I don’t like that shot there.


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