FiveThirtyEight
Nate Silver

That’s A Wrap

This afternoon, I wrote that I was more interested than usual in the State of the Union address. And I … sort of regret writing that. I don’t think there was a lot of news in this speech, and I don’t think it’s going to change much.

The first and foremost reason I was interested is that I thought Trump might signal his strategy on the border wall — e.g. whether he was willing to shut down the government again, or declare a national emergency, or whatever else. But he didn’t really do that. It’s not even clear that he has his strategy figured out. Now, arguably, the lack of a threat to shut down the government or to declare an emergency is itself newsworthy, a pulling back from the brink if you will, but there was also enough rhetoric about the importance of the wall and how dangerous illegal immigration is that I’m not sure I’d give too much credence to that theory.

The second reason I was interested is that I wanted to see if Trump could stick to what the White House teased ahead of time and deliver a speech that truly signaled a pivot toward a more bipartisan approach. And he didn’t do that, either. If he hadn’t talked for so long on immigration, he might have. But instead, he used the very same sort of rhetoric he’s used so many times before, including demonizing immigrants. And there was very little in terms of substantive policy proposals on stuff like infrastructure, which really could have been a good opportunity for Trump.

Finally, I was interested in Stacey Abrams’s response. And it was good in the sense that it wasn’t very newsworthy, since often these responses have been disasters. I’d have liked to see her have an even sharper focus on voting rights, and to have spoken to an audience that was actually reacting to the speech instead of just standing behind her like a Greek chorus. But as these things go, it was pretty decent. It wasn’t tedious, and it’s likely to do her more good than harm.

But, overall, I just don’t think this was a newsworthy night. The president had some good moments and some bad ones, some funny moments and some awkward ones, and overall the speech was so much of a hodgepodge that it didn’t really cohere into anything that’s going to matter. Within a day or two, a more interesting story will enter the news cycle, and everyone will have forgotten about it.


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