FiveThirtyEight
Julia Azari

Rebuttals Show That Party Politics Is Messy, And That’s Great

Next up on the agenda is … the rebuttal. After the announcement that Georgia Democrat Stacey Abrams would give the rebuttal to Trump’s State of the Union address, FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver tweeted:

But why are these speeches so hard? As Vox’s Andrew Prokop put it in 2016, part of the problem is that the opposition party never has a venue that matches that of the presidential address, the audience has already sat through a long speech, and the out-of-power group’s chosen messenger is tasked with conveying the priorities of an entire party (no easy feat). This has made it difficult for both erstwhile rising stars, like Republican Bobby Jindal of Louisiana in 2009, and long-serving politicians, like Democrat Steve Beshear of Kentucky in 2017, to deliver compelling rebuttals.

That said, the parties have experimented with several different rebuttal formats over the years (with varying degrees of success). In fact, before the 1990s, it was pretty common to have a bunch of people involved in a conversation as part of the rebuttal (or, like in 1985, even an infomercial). In the 1990s, however, the rebuttal consolidated around one person, and that was largely the practice until the Obama era. Then, starting in 2011, multiple rebuttals became the norm. In addition to Paul Ryan’s official response that year was a tea party response from Michele Bachmann. And in 2014, there were four different Republican rebuttals. Democrats picked up on this trend, and in 2018, they delivered five rebuttals to Trump’s first State of the Union. While this may seem like chaos, it has arguably forced the out-of-power party to think through its priorities and confront its divisions.

Initially, it looked like Democrats’ selection of Abrams this year might be evidence that the party had worked through some of its internal conflicts. Abrams appeals to different segments of the Democratic base and presents a clear voice of resistance to Trump. Having Abrams give the official response also might indicate that Democrats are willing to embrace new ideas and new people to be the face of the party. But the official response from a progressive, African-American woman (plus the Spanish-language rebuttal) hasn’t stopped Bernie Sanders or the Working Families Party from planning their own versions. Although Abrams will be the main Democratic event, we’re still seeing a bunch of voices on the party’s left competing to be heard. Next year’s response to the State of the Union will be during the lead-up to the 2020 presidential primary season, and there could be a rebuttal to reflect each of the many candidates who are expected to vie for the nomination.


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