What Went Down At The South Carolina Primary

Biden would need a delegate margin of 30 over Sanders in South Carolina to tie him in the national delegate count. In FiveThirtyEight’s final forecast before today’s primary, Biden’s average delegate margin over Sanders was about 16 in scenarios where Biden won the primary. In 19 percent of those scenarios, Biden’s delegate margin over Sanders was at least 30.

One thing I hadn’t given too much thought to, but could happen tonight, is that Biden could overtake Sanders in the pledged delegate count. What would need to happen for that to occur?

The way things are setting up, Biden and Sanders might be the only candidates who clear the 15 percent threshold statewide in South Carolina, and given his weak backing among black voters, Sanders might fall short in a district or two. So that’s going to be something to keep an eye on.