What Went Down At The South Carolina Primary

Initial actual results are showing Biden with a VERY large lead — 58-13-12 over Sanders and Steyer — although it looks like this is mostly absentee voting from rural counties, which was expected to be very good for him.

It sure looks that way now. But say Biden does win the nomination — he’d be the first nominee to not win in either Iowa or New Hampshire since Bill Clinton in 1992. Those first two states just do so much expectation-setting for the rest of the primary, which hasn’t really happened here.

Yeah, Micah, our model certainly thinks it’s a three-way race between Sanders, Biden and no one. But “no one,” of course, could be anyone, if this thing goes to a contested convention. So that might be incentive for the second-tier candidates to stay in the race.