FiveThirtyEight
Nate Silver

I think it’s a little bit of Nevada, Micah, combined with two relatively good debates and — most importantly, perhaps — the fact that he was the only real alternative to Bernie in South Carolina (unless you want to count Steyer, I guess).

Micah Cohen

I wonder if voters interpreted the Nevada results as, “OK, Biden is the alternative to Sanders.”

I’m about 50 percent subscribed to that take, with the rest going to “South Carolina is a good state for Biden.”

Nate Silver

We didn’t get four different winners in the early states, but we did get four different outcomes in terms of who won the most pledged delegates:

  • Iowa: Buttigieg
  • New Hampshire: Sanders and Buttigieg tie
  • Nevada: Sanders
  • South Carolina: Biden

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