FiveThirtyEight
Sarah Frostenson

Right, I could see a very different breakdown between Sanders and Biden in say, California, when it comes to black voter support. South Carolina has a lot of moderate voters — both black and white.

Galen Druke

Also, caucuses simply aren’t a great way of gauging voter support. They just aren’t.

Nate Silver

Biden’s margin among black voters in South Carolina was 60-17 over Sanders, according to exit polls. That’s much bigger than his 38-28 win among black voters in Nevada. The black vote just isn’t automatically the same from state to state and you need to be wary of analyses that presume the contrary.


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