FiveThirtyEight
Micah Cohen

Yeah, the movement in the polls in the run-up to tonight is really interesting. For example, I know everyone is talking about the Clyburn endorsement (and definitely watch Galen’s interview with him) and even Biden’s debate performance, but as Nathaniel wrote earlier in the week, Biden started to surge in South Carolina after Nevada and before the debate or endorsement.

There are a lot of different ways to interpret that — establishment voters reacting against Sanders’s win, Biden’s clear second-place finish in Nevada being important, etc. But also … primaries are just pretty crazy.

Galen Druke

Yeah Nate, I’ll use your mention of Clyburn to plug that we talked to him earlier this week about the Democratic primary. He came out strongly against Sanders and serves as a good example of how party leadership is thinking about a possible Sanders nomination.

Nate Silver

It also just ain’t a great sign for Sanders — polls went from showing him almost tied in South Carolina (after New Hampshire) to losing by what could be 20 or more points tonight.


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