FiveThirtyEight
Galen Druke

Yeah Nate, I’ll use your mention of Clyburn to plug that we talked to him earlier this week about the Democratic primary. He came out strongly against Sanders and serves as a good example of how party leadership is thinking about a possible Sanders nomination.

Nate Silver

It also just ain’t a great sign for Sanders — polls went from showing him almost tied in South Carolina (after New Hampshire) to losing by what could be 20 or more points tonight.

Nathaniel Rakich

According to preliminary exit polls, 36 percent of South Carolina primary voters decided on their vote within the last few days, while 63 percent knew who they were voting for before that. That may seem like not a lot of people were late deciders, but in fact, it’s significantly more than in either 2008 or 2016.

Decision: How 2020 primary voters compare to past years

Breakdown by decision time of South Carolina primary voters in 2020 and recent presidential election cycles, according to preliminary exit poll data

When did they decide? 2004 2008 2016 2020
Within the last few days 33% 21% 15% 36%
Before that 67 79 84 63

The sample size was 2,033 in 2004; 1,905 in 2008; 1,461 in 2016; and 2,032 so far in 2020.

Source: ABC NEWS/EDISON RESEARCH


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