What Went Down At The South Carolina Primary
Coming into the South Carolina Democratic primary, there was a lot of talk in the media about “Operation Chaos,” a supposed effort by Republicans to support Sanders in South Carolina’s open primary to help him win the Democratic nomination. However, there’s not much evidence this actually happened. The preliminary exit polls show that only 5 percent of primary voters identified as Republican, in line with the share of Republicans who voted in the 2004 Democratic primaries, which is another cycle where the presidential party didn’t hold a primary in South Carolina.
However, there were many more independent voters in this cycle than in 2016, which suggests that some voters who might have voted in the GOP primary four years ago cast ballots today. Still, there’s not much evidence that Republican voters “interfered” in the Democratic primary.
Party: How 2020 primary voters compare to past years
Breakdown by party identification of South Carolina primary voters in 2020 and recent presidential election cycles, according to preliminary entrance poll data
| Party Identification | 2004 | 2008 | 2016 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | 71% | 73% | 82% | 68% |
| Independent/Other | 24 | 23 | 16 | 27 |
| Republican | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
It makes a decently big difference, per our model.
So … if Biden wins this thing running away, as the early calls suggest, that’s good for him, right? #analysis
Seriously, though, how much of a difference does it make whether Biden wins by 5 points versus 20 points?