What Went Down At The South Carolina Primary

It makes a decently big difference, per our model.

So … if Biden wins this thing running away, as the early calls suggest, that’s good for him, right? #analysis

Seriously, though, how much of a difference does it make whether Biden wins by 5 points versus 20 points?

Just last week, it looked like black voters were divided among Biden, Sanders and Steyer, with no candidate receiving a majority of their support. Black voters often turn out as a bloc, and no Democrat has won the nomination since 1992 without their backing. Whether Biden could coalesce that bloc tonight was an open question and it looks like he’s done it. According to exit polls, he received 60 percent of the black vote in South Carolina. (Black voters are approximately 55 percent of the electorate).