What Went Down At The South Carolina Primary

From the gender breakdown in exit polls, you can infer an approximate topline of Biden 44-45, Sanders 21-22, Steyer ~12, Buttigieg ~9, Warren ~8.

Sure. In a caucus, the exit polls only show initial vote preferences, and people can realign if their candidate doesn’t get 15 percent. And in the Nevada caucuses in particular, there was a combination of early voting and Election Day voting that the state was attempting for the first time, which added further complications. Plus, the pre-election polling is generally less accurate in caucuses, which means one’s priors are weaker. I think the decision desks were correct to wait on Nevada.

I’m seeing criticism online about how the race was called immediately for Biden, but Sanders didn’t get the same treatment in Nevada despite a similarly impressive lead early in the night. Nate, I asked you about this earlier, and you told me it has to do with the complexities of a caucus versus a primary. Can you elaborate?