What Went Down At The South Carolina Primary

Sure. In a caucus, the exit polls only show initial vote preferences, and people can realign if their candidate doesn’t get 15 percent. And in the Nevada caucuses in particular, there was a combination of early voting and Election Day voting that the state was attempting for the first time, which added further complications. Plus, the pre-election polling is generally less accurate in caucuses, which means one’s priors are weaker. I think the decision desks were correct to wait on Nevada.

I’m seeing criticism online about how the race was called immediately for Biden, but Sanders didn’t get the same treatment in Nevada despite a similarly impressive lead early in the night. Nate, I asked you about this earlier, and you told me it has to do with the complexities of a caucus versus a primary. Can you elaborate?

Today’s voters in South Carolina were ideologically similar to those in past years, according to preliminary exit polls. Twenty percent reported that they were “very liberal,” 30 percent that they were “somewhat liberal,” 40 percent that they were “moderate” and just 9 percent that they were “conservative.” Remember, though, that these numbers may shift slightly in future waves of exit polling.