FiveThirtyEight
Dan Hopkins

In politics, context changes quickly. Remember how the Democrats passed the ACA through the Senate in December 2009, thinking they could revisit its rougher edges (see Cornhusker Kickback)? That didn’t work out so well, and some of the ACA’s lingering limitations date to that gamble. While Speaker Ryan can commit to not pass “skinny repeal” immediately, what happens if the politics in the Senate change, such that it’s “skinny repeal” or nothing?

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