FiveThirtyEight
Harry Enten

Dan’s earlier post about whether the “skinny repeal” will be popular brings up an interesting point about the Affordable Care Act: Most of the law’s provisions have polled highly throughout its existence — in fact, the individual pieces have been more popular than the law overall. Why? Most of the items in Dan’s list below are about increasing coverage for Americans (e.g., expanding Medicaid or covering pre-existing conditions) or taxing businesses or wealthier people (e.g., the employer mandate or the Medicare payroll tax). The reason the ACA has polled poorly overall at times is a lack of support for the individual mandate — the part of the law that forces most Americans to buy insurance or pay a fine. Americans seem to like the law as long as they don’t have to pay for its benefits. Put another way, opposition to the ACA hasn’t been an ideological objection to larger government — it’s been an objection to paying for larger government. The problem, of course, is that for there to be more services, there must be a way to pay for those services. The mandate is that payment mechanism. That’s part of the reason why many policy experts argue that “skinny repeal,” which eliminates the mandate, would be a policy disaster.

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