Some Of These ’No’ Votes Come As A Surprise
Based only on Trump’s election margin in each state — the metric we use for calculating our Trump Score — several Republican “no” votes on today’s repeal-and-delay measure were surprising. Based on Trump’s margin and how other senators voted, we would have given Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia a 96 percent chance of voting for the measure. And Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander would have had an 81 percent chance of voting “yes.” Both of them, along with five other Republicans, voted “no.”
| SENATOR | STATE | VOTE | PREDICTED PROBABILITY | TRUMP PLUS-MINUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capito | WV | No | 95.98% | -95.98 |
| Alexander | TN | No | 80.80% | -80.80 |
| Murkowski | AK | No | 60.18% | -60.18 |
| Portman | OH | No | 45.99% | -45.99 |
| McCain | AZ | No | 36.32% | -36.32 |
| Heller | NV | No | 25.02% | -25.02 |
| Collins | ME | No | 24.09% | -24.09 |
| Enzi | WY | Yes | 97.58% | +2.42 |
| Barrasso | WY | Yes | 97.58% | +2.42 |
| Lankford | OK | Yes | 92.44% | +7.56 |
| Inhofe | OK | Yes | 92.44% | +7.56 |
| Hoeven | ND | Yes | 91.91% | +8.09 |
| Risch | ID | Yes | 88.18% | +11.82 |
| Crapo | ID | Yes | 88.18% | +11.82 |
| Paul | KY | Yes | 85.97% | +14.03 |
| McConnell | KY | Yes | 85.97% | +14.03 |
| Rounds | SD | Yes | 85.91% | +14.09 |
| Thune | SD | Yes | 85.91% | +14.09 |
| Shelby | AL | Yes | 83.25% | +16.75 |
| Strange | AL | Yes | 83.25% | +16.75 |
| Cotton | AR | Yes | 82.13% | +17.87 |
| Boozman | AR | Yes | 82.13% | +17.87 |
| Corker | TN | Yes | 80.80% | +19.2 |
| Fischer | NE | Yes | 79.35% | +20.65 |
| Sasse | NE | Yes | 79.35% | +20.65 |
| Roberts | KS | Yes | 71.80% | +28.2 |
| Moran | KS | Yes | 71.80% | +28.2 |
| Daines | MT | Yes | 71.47% | +28.53 |
| Kennedy | LA | Yes | 70.01% | +29.99 |
| Cassidy | LA | Yes | 70.01% | +29.99 |
| Young | IN | Yes | 69.11% | +30.89 |
| Blunt | MO | Yes | 68.09% | +31.91 |
| Lee | UT | Yes | 67.00% | +33 |
| Hatch | UT | Yes | 67.00% | +33 |
| Cochran | MS | Yes | 66.50% | +33.5 |
| Wicker | MS | Yes | 66.50% | +33.5 |
| Sullivan | AK | Yes | 60.18% | +39.82 |
| Scott | SC | Yes | 59.20% | +40.8 |
| Graham | SC | Yes | 59.20% | +40.8 |
| Grassley | IA | Yes | 48.75% | +51.25 |
| Ernst | IA | Yes | 48.75% | +51.25 |
| Cruz | TX | Yes | 47.87% | +52.13 |
| Cornyn | TX | Yes | 47.87% | +52.13 |
| Isakson | GA | Yes | 39.66% | +60.34 |
| Perdue | GA | Yes | 39.66% | +60.34 |
| Tillis | NC | Yes | 36.55% | +63.45 |
| Burr | NC | Yes | 36.55% | +63.45 |
| Flake | AZ | Yes | 36.32% | +63.68 |
| Rubio | FL | Yes | 31.65% | +68.35 |
| Johnson | WI | Yes | 30.82% | +69.18 |
| Toomey | PA | Yes | 30.74% | +69.26 |
| Gardner | CO | Yes | 20.92% | +79.08 |