FiveThirtyEight
Harry Enten

What essentially this comes down to is that these Republican senators want to vote for a bill, which they don’t actually want to become law. That’s, to say the least, highly unusual. And as Perry points out, there’s really nothing that keeps Ryan and the House GOP from passing the Senate bill. I don’t think Ryan would screw over the Senate GOP, but what’s stopping him?
Nate Silver

It’s not surprising that Johnson is one of the senators demanding more reassurance about the process. He felt betrayed by McConnell earlier in the health care debate and accused him of a “breach of trust” after he discovered McConnell implying to moderates that BCRA’s Medicaid cuts would never take effect.
Perry Bacon Jr.

I think Ryan could promise not to take up that bill and that would be a believable promise, namely because Ryan is very conservative and I assume doesn’t want to be seen as the creator of “skinny repeal.” But I’m not sure how enforceable this is. Ryan can do whatever he wants. Once the bill is passed in the Senate, if the House bill passes the exact version, that’s it. I do think Trump can play a role here, in telling Ryan not to take up this bill. Or doing the opposite.

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